Alibaba's AI Climate Model Predicts Weather 12 Months Out

Alibaba has unveiled a new artificial intelligence system capable of predicting climate patterns up to a full year in advance. The Baguan-Seasonal model debuted at the United Nations COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil, representing a significant leap in applying AI to long-range weather forecasting.

The system builds on Alibaba's previous Baguan model, developed by the company's DAMO Academy research division. While the original Baguan focused on short-term predictions from one hour to ten days ahead, the new seasonal variant extends this capability to cover months-long forecasting windows. This expansion addresses one of meteorology's most challenging frontiers.

Accurate long-range climate prediction has remained elusive due to Earth's complex atmospheric and oceanic systems. Most existing models struggle with probabilistic forecasting, where uncertainty must be quantified rather than ignored. Baguan-Seasonal introduces novel approaches including tokenization strategies and mixed-scale conditioning to handle high-dimensional climate data across different spatial and temporal scales.

The system can detect long-term meteorological signals that provide early warnings for natural disasters including floods, droughts, and cold waves. Alibaba also introduced Baguan-S2S, a sub-seasonal model that forecasts conditions from two weeks to six weeks ahead. Research showed this model could predict North Atlantic Oscillation patterns four weeks in advance, outperforming established forecasting centers.

These AI systems are already seeing real-world deployment. In collaboration with China's Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Baguan helped predict tropical cyclone Co-May's path and intensity with 50% higher accuracy than other models. The improved forecasting guided the evacuation of approximately 97,000 people from vulnerable coastal areas.

Beyond weather prediction, the models are being used for renewable energy forecasting in multiple Chinese cities. The technology supports grid planning by providing more accurate days-ahead predictions of solar and wind power availability under volatile weather conditions.

The climate forecasting innovations were part of Alibaba's broader AI for Good initiatives highlighted at COP30. The company's 2025 report detailed additional applications in healthcare, education, and sustainable data centers, though the weather prediction systems represent the most immediate climate adaptation technology.

As extreme weather events intensify globally, the ability to forecast conditions months in advance could transform how societies prepare for climate impacts. The technology arrives as governments and industries seek better tools for agricultural planning, disaster response, and energy management in an increasingly volatile climate system.